Episode 63: Sea Level Rise with John Englander (Rising Seas Institute)

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Episode Intro Notes

What We Will Cover

• What is sea level rise?

• How is climate change causing SLR to happen?

• How much has the sea risen historically?

• How fast and how much is the sea expected to rise in the coming years?

• What are the impacts of the expected sea level rise and how does it differ across geographies and industries?

• What can we do to adapt to the coming sea level rise?

• About our guest: John Englander
  

  Here on Sustainability Defined, we’ve discussed new climate-resilient solutions, shared up-and-coming sustainable industries, and provided helpful, empowering tips for definers to implement into their own lives. But today, we will be diving into one of the effects of climate change that threatens to most up-end our lives: Sea level rise (which we’ll refer to in this episode as SLR). The scale of the effects are trillions of dollars and hundreds of millions of people. So while we’re still work in some jokes I’m sure, this is a pretty weighty topic. It’s honestly hard to not get a bit overwhelmed thinking about the ramifications and also not to get into the trap of cognitive dissonance, where people have a thought and a behavior that conflict, and then rationalize that behavior to avoid the dissonance. Someone may have lived on the coast for decades, heard the science about sea level rise, but then find a way to dismiss the science so they can keep living as they always have. We think you’ll hear today that the science is undeniable, sea level rise is coming, and we must act, as Martin Luther King Jr said, with the “fierce urgency of now.”

what is sea level rise?

• Okay so, what does sea level rise really mean? Sure, the name, “sea level rise” may speak for itself, but let’s break it apart and “sea” how we can “level” up our understanding and “rise” together to make a difference.

• Sea Level Rise is an increase in the level of the world’s oceans due to the effects of climate change. There are two main drivers increasing ocean volume: ice melt and thermal expansion.

• Okay, so now we know that the two main contributors to SLR are ice melting and thermal expansion, but how does that work? 

  • Well first off, let’s talk about what’s not causing SLR. Contrary to popular belief, and to what is sometimes advertised, the melting of icebergs is not contributing to SLR. 

    • John Englander, who is our expert for today’s podcast, highlights in his new book, Moving to Higher Ground: Rising Sea Level and the Path Forward, a simple science experiment to explain why icebergs aren’t the culprit when it comes to SLR. We will be referencing his book throughout this episode while “diving” into different important aspects of SLR. John says to consider ice cubes in a glass of water. The ice cubes are like miniature icebergs. When the ice melts, you’ll notice that the level of water in the glass does not rise.

  • Rather than icebergs, the ice that contributes to SLR is the ice on land in the form of ice sheets and glaciers. Ice sheets and glaciers represent 200 feet of potential SLR and hold 98% of the global ice on land. Antarctica and Greenland are the world’s two biggest ice sheets, holding about 98% of the global ice on land. Antarctica alone holds more than 80% of potential SLR. 

• And then let’s not forget about thermal expansion. It’s the second-largest contributor to global sea level rise, and it occurs as water expands very slightly in volume as it gets warmer. Over the last century, as the oceans have warmed up about two degrees fahrenheit (about one degree celsius), they have increased in height by about 4 inches (ten centimeters) just from thermal expansion. This is about the same contribution as from ice on land, but ice on land is starting to dominate with the increasing melt rate of glaciers and ice sheets.

how is climate change causing slr to happen?

• Alright, so now we know ice on land melting and thermal expansion are the two main contributors to SLR, but why are they melting? What’s the climate science behind this?

  • Before getting into the effects of human-caused climate change, let’s talk about natural variations in temperature. There is more than one but a very important natural variation is the Milankovitch cycle. This cycle is due to the elliptical (i.e., not a perfect circle) orbit of the Earth around the sun, the angular (i.e., non-upright) spinning of the Earth’s axis, and that the Earth wobbling as it spins on its axis. It accounts for heating and cooling periods that occur over thousands of years.

  • Some “deniers' of climate change say that these “natural cycles of the planet” are why SLR or any symptom of climate change is even occurring. However, this cycle and other natural variations can’t explain the rapid warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution in the mid-19th century. In fact, according to the natural cycle, we should have started the period of sea level falling. Instead, it’s now rising again.

    • It’s kind of mind boggling to think about how we’ve been in this wonderful period during the 8,000 years or so of human civilization where Earth hasn’t changed much, but it naturally does go through wild swings. 

• Today, however, our current upward swing is not natural with CO2 levels higher than they have been in at least 3 million years. And although they still account for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, that still adds up to billions upon billions of tons of heat-trapping gas. It’s kind of like how alcohol can affect your own motor skills while only a very small percent of your bloodstream.

  • Feedback loops also play a role in accelerating warming. One feedback loop example is the “ice-albedo feedback.” Basically as the arctic continues to warm, sea ice is lost due to the warming. The ice melting exposes more dark ocean, which has a lower albedo than the white ice since the white ice reflects light while the dark ocean absorbs solar energy. More heat absorbed means more ice melting and then even more exposed dark ocean.

how much has the sea risen historically?

• An important aspect of understanding the big changes in global sea level is looking at the rock-solid science: ... the history of Earth’s ice ages.

• For thousands of years, CO2, global average temperature, and sea level have moved in close synchronization, triggering “warming” and “cooling” periods.

  • When Earth was farther from the sun, we received less heat energy, which is quite similar to the way we receive less heat during the winter season each year. You could think of the hundred-thousand-year warming and cooling ice age cycles like a large-scale version of summer and winter.

• 2.5 million years ago, mile-high ice sheets and glaciers existed far from the poles even into the mid-latitude region. As these ice sheets come and go, sea level can rise and fall as much as 400 feet.

• The most recent significant sea level rise began about 18,000 years ago following the natural warming pattern coming out of the last ice age. As the ice sheets melted, sea level rose at an average of about 4 feet per century over the course of 10,000 years. Now, four feet in a century is only one-half inch (slightly more than a centimeter) a year, an amount that couldn’t be perceived, but it adds up and just four feet would be challenging for many of today’s coastal areas.

  • In this century, the rate of sea level rise will almost certainly be much faster than usually seen in history, because the current increasing rate of warming is much faster than seen by natural warming cycles..

• Before we talk about what’s expected in just a bit, let’s touch on the rise of sea level in recent history. Over the 20th century, average rise was less than 2 millimeters (seven hundredths of an inch) a year. That’s not a lot, but the acceleration and trend should get our attention. Starting in 1993 over the next two decades, the rate of rise was 3.1 millimeters a year. Then from 2010 to 2019, the rate of rise was 4.5 millimeters a year (two tenths of an inch). This quick doubling in rate is what should concern us as it can mean very fast growth.

how fast and how much is the sea expected to rise in the coming years?

• Before we dive into it, let’s get one thing straight, even if we stopped emitting carbon entirely tomorrow, the world’s sea-level will still rise with devastating effects. This is because of the stunning amounts of heat going into the ocean. The amount of heat accumulating in the ocean is equivalent to about five atomic bombs worth of heat every second. The excess heat already stored in the sea will continue to melt the ice sheets for centuries, raising global sea level. 

• So how much will sea level rise? Science can’t predict the rise, and the rise could happen quickly. The incremental pace of the rise can lull us into complacency. John Englander says to expect one to two feet in the next 30 years and 10 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. His informed guess is that 10,000 communities would be impacted with a sea level rise of five feet, many of them huge population centers.

• While that’s what John expects, the most recognized projection for sea level rise is from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC).

  • The IPCC is the body of the world’s leading climate experts charged with preparing comprehensive reports on the state of our climate knowledge.

  • In the IPCC’s worst case scenario, it says there will be only three feet of sea level rise by 2100, a fair bit lower than what John is suggesting. Why? Well even in this worst case scenario, the IPCC includes just 6 inches of sea level rise from Antarctica. You may recall that Antarctica holds more than 80% of potential SLR. The IPCC includes such a small amount because the rise from Antarctica can’t be predicted with the level of certainty required by its rules.

    • John states in his book that 6 inches of SLR from Antarctica is not at all representative of what the glaciologists believe to be at stake as that 6 inches is out of a potential 186 feet of sea level contribution from the southern continent. He calls this the “Antarctic Asterisk”. 

• If John is right, estimating 10 feet by 2100, there would be significant impacts on our environment and our way of life.

What are the impacts of the expected sea level rise and how does it differ across geographies and industries?

• First, we want to note that SLR does not affect every place on Earth equally. Some areas are particularly vulnerable. For example, in the United States, sea levels at hotspots along the East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Hawaiian Islands are rising 3-4 times faster than the global average.

• So what should we expect? 

  • 1) Environmental Impacts

    • The IPCC identifies that the expected impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems over the course of the century include habitat contraction, forced in-land migration of animals, and loss of biofunctionality and biodiversity.

    • Biodiversity:

      • A groundbreaking report from the Center of Biological Diversity found that 233 threatened and endangered species in 23 coastal states are at risk of harm from sea-level rise due to effects such as habitat loss and saltwater intrusion on water sources. This means that, left unchecked, rising seas threaten the survival of 17 percent — one out of six — of our nation's federally protected species.

  • 2) Socioeconomic Impacts

    • Migration/climate refugees

      • Though climate change is caused by the world’s wealthiest nations, its consequences are felt disproportionately in developing countries that have almost no responsibility for releasing greenhouse gas emissions.

      • Let’s consider Bangladesh. It’s one of the most densely populated countries in the world with 160 million people in an area the size of Wisconsin. Very high poverty levels exist there as it is ranked the 11th poorest country. Unfortunately, it faces extreme consequences of SLR. Over 6% of the country is already underwater, which will rise to approximately 20% with just 1 meter (3 feet) of additional SLR. Recall that John is projecting ten feet of SLR by 2100.

    • Coastal Flooding

      • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that by the year 2100, three feet of sea-level rise will affect an additional 4.2 million people in the U.S., with Florida accounting for nearly half of the total at-risk population, and then at six feet, 13.1 million people in the U.S. will be impacted.

        • A quick note on Florida. It’s a great example of how different areas will have different impacts. Consider that Orlando is 80 feet above sea level and Tallahassee 200 feet above sea level so those areas of the state are relatively safe from the worst effects.

      • Then if we look globally, a recent study found that if sea levels rise just 1 to 2 more feet, the amount of coastal land at risk of flooding would increase by roughly one-third. In 2050, up to 204 million people currently living along the coasts would face flooding risks. By 2100, that rises to as many as 253 million people under a moderate emissions scenario known as RCP4.5. 

      • Like we said earlier, John is thinking 10 feet by 2100, so these millions of people impacted is pretty real.

      • Seeing visuals can also help make it real. In the intro notes on our website, sustainabilitydefined.com, we link to an article from October 2021 that features visuals from the non-profit Climate Central of to what extent well known places will be under water in different scenarios. It’s pretty jarring.

    • GDP/General Economic Impacts

      • John says the adaptation to SLR will be the greatest economic driver this century. From an economic sense, it will likely devastate many while being a boon to others. As John notes in his book, crisis in Chinese has two characters--danger and opportunity.

      • When it comes to the value of assets lost from projected coastal flooding, $17–210 trillion in assets are projected to be lost by 2100, with the severity of assets lost depending on adaptation strategies utilized. 

      • Another recent study found that people currently living in areas at risk from a 3-foot rise in sea levels owned $14 trillion in assets in 2011, an amount equal to 20 percent of global G.D.P. that year.

        • This loss of value wouldn’t just be those whose homes go under water, and those homes may lose value even before the water comes. Note that even those on higher ground may also lose property value. John tells the story in his book of a reader who sent him a note saying your book caused me to think about how even though my house is well above sea level, that is not the case for many in my community, and if my community starts to fail, my house may not flood, but it will lose value.

      • But what about the economic opportunity with SLR?

        • With so much uncertainty along the coastline, people and capital may seek refuge elsewhere.

        • Cities that are isolated from sea level rise but accessible to the ocean shipping lanes may see a very positive effect on their property values and economic growth. Cities near the Great Lakes or on the Mississippi, Amazon, or Thames rivers will not be affected by 3 feet in SLR unlike many major coastal ports and may provide stable ports for global and regional shipping systems.

          • Fun fact, the great lakes will not be impacted by sea level rise any time soon as they are hundreds of feet above sea level.

        • Aside from the economic benefits of the shipping routes, it's foreseeable that communities on stable rivers and lakes may benefit from the growing uncertainty about oceanfront locations. Water views are prized in either setting. As a result, there is good upmarket potential for many lake-side or river-side properties.

    • Small island extinction

      • Islands across the world will be severely impacted by the impacts to SLR due to their high exposure to coastal areas and intensified cyclone activity, even with “best-case scenario projections.”

        • A rise of just 3 feet could submerge as much as two-thirds of Kiribati by the end of this century.

  • 3) Unique industry impacts

    • Insurance rates

      • Changes to the main U.S. flood insurance program will raise rates for 77% of policyholders. In fact, by next April of 2022, most current policyholders will see their premiums go up and continue to rise by 18% per year for the next 20 years.

        • Some will see only modest increases, but some high-risk homes can potentially see increases upwards of $12,000 a year in insurance costs.

    • Home prices/devaluation

      • Homes exposed to sea level rise sell for about 7% less than their unexposed counterparts as just 1 inch of water can cause $25,000 of damage to a home.

    • SLR also offers up an opportunity for many professionals to be part of the solution as well as gain business. These include lawyers, engineers, architects, city planners, and finance professionals. John in particular says architects must lead since they can create a built environment that is aesthetically pleasing while functional in our new reality.

what can we do to adapt to the coming sea level rise?

• Planning ahead for SLR will enhance or undermine future economies depending on how communities approach the issue. Those that think strategically and engage in robust long-term planning will almost certainly be rewarded at the expense of those that think short-term and narrowly.

• At the macro level, John says we need to do two things: slow the warming and intelligently adapt to rising sea levels. In his book, he distinguishes four separate categories of climate and environmental effort that we can take to reduce the impact of SLR:

  • 1) Reduce CO2 emissions to slow the warming, the melting ice, and rising sea. This must be done at a large scale. We must do this to reduce the severity of sea level rise and other climate change impacts, but of course we must recognize that the existing excess heat in the ocean is going to result in significant sea level rise and adapt accordingly.

  • 2) Prepare for the more frequent flood events that are already occurring by being more resilient. 

    • One way to prepare is building infrastructure that can still function in the face of SLR. 

      • In the Netherlands, public parks such as Rotterdam’s Benthemplein have been developed as attractive, useful “water squares”, places that can function during good weather as community gathering places with recreational facilities. Thanks to their clever design, they become short-term water storage during deluge rain or flooding, diverting the extra water from flooding the streets and homes.

    • And don’t think that preparing for more frequent flood events means more pumps. For one, pumps can be very energy intensive. And in some places pumps are useless because of the geography. Consider how cities like Miami are built on porous limestone, which means the water will literally rise up through the ground, making the pumps pretty useless.

    • And at a certain point, it may make sense to move to higher ground.

      • John in his book talks about how the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is now looking at if protecting New Orleans from a hundred year storm is technically possible as well as economically justified. This review is after the Army Corps spent $14 billion fortifying the levees. Startlingly, it concluded that the system even after this upgrade will no longer provide the required risk reduction as early as 2023.

  • 3) Prepare for long-term sea level rise by changing building and zoning codes and recognizing the durability of buildings and infrastructure. We must plan for the rapid, potentially abrupt, SLR acceleration in the coming decades.

    • Places may not want to admit they have a problem, but they should start now and reap the rewards later.

    • We need bold action.

      • It’s been done in the past. Seattle committed to rebuilding their entire city, in some places raising streets by a whopping 22 feet, way back in 1889 after a great fire destroyed the area. Seattle had faced flooding for years, and with great foresight, the city took advantage of that disaster as an opportunity to fix the flooding streets.

      • More recently, Indonesia announced that it is spending millions of dollars to move its capital to a newly built city in large part because Jakarta is actively sinking due to subsidence.

    • We also need to build with long-term SLR in mind and factor that in when building bridges and such. We can’t plan and build based on historical patterns.

      • Sadly, much of our existing infrastructure doesn’t account for it. Consider that the United States has 29,000 miles of levees with an average age of more than 50 years old. They were built without present flood risks in mind.

  • 4) Address the multitude of other critical environmental issues, including clean air, safe drinking water, recycling, ending the scourge of plastics in the ocean, coral reef protection, wildlife and ecosystem

about our guest, john englander

• John Englander is an oceanographer, multi-book author, and international speaker on climate change and SLR.

  • John has logged over 5,000 SCUBA dives, and he was at one point the CEO of The Cousteau Society.

• Multiple expeditions to Greenland and Antarctica have shown John, first hand, the devastating effects of melting ice on land reaching the sea. These expeditions, coupled with his broad science background in both oceanography and geology give him a unique perspective on planet ecology.

• More on John Englander: https://johnenglander.net/ and again his most recent book is Moving to Higher Ground: Rising Sea Level and the Path Forward.